South Africa Election Updates: Early Results Hint at ANC Losing Majority

The realm of political maneuvering in South Africa is poised to intensify following the announcement of this week's election results, with the nation facing the prospect of no clear winner emerging.

Preliminary results unveiled on Thursday indicated a significant drop in support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC), falling well below the 50% mark in the national vote tally as counting continued. These early figures corroborated pre-election forecasts suggesting that the party, which has held sway over South African politics for three decades, may relinquish its outright majority in the coming days.

While certain opposition factions may hail this outcome as a triumph for change, the manner in which such change would manifest remains uncertain should the ANC fail to secure a majority.

Despite maintaining a considerable lead over its nearest competitor in the initial results, even the most pessimistic scenario for the ANC anticipates a relatively comfortable lead in the popular vote. Nevertheless, without a majority, the party would likely need to forge a coalition in order to establish a government and, as a priority following the election, designate a president.

The potential partners for such a coalition within the ANC's ranks remain undisclosed. Consequently, as South Africa braces for a watershed moment, the prospect of complications looms should the ANC fall short of the 50% threshold.

SELECTING A PRESIDENT

The foremost task following the election is the selection of the head of state. In South Africa, citizens vote for political parties rather than directly for the president. The election outcome determines the allocation of seats each party receives in Parliament, with the president subsequently elected through a parliamentary vote.

Given the ANC's historical dominance in the 400-member Parliament since the end of apartheid in 1994, the process of appointing its leader as president has been straightforward. However, this year could witness a departure from the norm. In the absence of a parliamentary majority, the ANC would need to secure support from other parties to reach the requisite threshold of 201 votes for the reelection of President Cyril Ramaphosa to a second and final five-year term.

FORMING A GOVERNMENT

Once again, in the event of the ANC failing to secure a parliamentary majority, it would necessitate cooperation or coalition-building to establish a government. Such an arrangement carries long-term ramifications, as any coalition would dictate the passage of legislation and the implementation of government policies.

Without consensus, the ANC would be unable to govern—or in this scenario, co-govern.

WHAT LIES AHEAD

A delineated timeline governs the subsequent steps and their timing. The announcement of national election results must occur within seven days of polls closing, with the independent electoral commission responsible for the process ensuring compliance within this timeframe. Once the results are declared, the new Parliament has 14 days to convene for its inaugural session and elect a president.

During the interim period between result declaration and parliamentary convening, negotiations between parties are expected to intensify to explore potential arrangements. The identity of prospective coalition partners for the ANC remains speculative, given the party's minimal disclosures regarding coalition-building.

Ultimately, the ANC's proximity to a majority—or lack thereof—in the final results will shape its engagement with potential partners. Should it fall just short of the 50% mark, it might approach smaller parties, though some have already expressed reluctance to collaborate. Alternatively, if the gap is more substantial, dialogue with one of the two largest opposition parties—namely, the centrist Democratic Alliance or the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters—would likely ensue, each with its distinct ideological leanings and potential implications for the ANC's trajectory.

"This election throws conventional wisdom out the window," remarked Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen. "We're entering uncharted territory of coalition politics."